Washington/Ankara – Turkey’s long-standing involvement in the Syrian conflict, rooted in its creation of the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA)—widely seen as a rebranded Syrian Muslim Brotherhood—has been driven by an ambitious Neo-Ottoman ideology under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This vision, bolstered by propaganda maps of a “New Turkey” that annexes Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq, has faced significant hurdles, exposing cracks in Turkey’s strategy and its alignment with NATO.
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Turkey’s initial plan leaned heavily on NATO’s backing, which had historically supported Ankara’s fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). However, the maturation of Kurdish forces—both politically and militarily—disrupted this calculus. The Kurds, once a missing piece in Turkey and NATO’s strategy, emerged as a formidable power, challenging Ankara’s designs.
Erdogan’s confidence soared with the state-sponsored rise of Salafist Islamist groups, a role Turkey assumed after the U.S. faltered in similar efforts with Afghanistan’s mujahideen. The U.S.-backed “Train+Equip” program, with camps based in Turkey and recruits handpicked by Ankara, gave birth to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group critics call a Turco-Syrian Al Qaeda. Many of its top leaders reportedly hold Turkish citizenship, underscoring the deep ties. Erdogan boasted that within six months he would pray in Damascus’s Ummayad Mosque—a promise yet unfulfilled.
HTS, under leader Al Jolani, gained gradual promotion from Turkey and NATO. A leaked 2012 email from Jake Sullivan to Hillary Clinton famously claimed, “Al Qaeda is on our side,” hinting at a pragmatic alignment. Yet, the program’s graduates often defected to Al Qaeda and ISIS, failing to subdue the Kurds and complicating Turkey’s war against them.
The U.S., initially hesitant, shifted to support the Kurds to counterbalance the “Syrian Islamization project” Turkey envisioned—an Islamic Republic to bolster Erdogan’s threats of invading Israel in support of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. At a recent rally, as crowds chanted for Erdogan to “send us to Jerusalem,” he urged patience, signaling a long-term gambit.
Israel, meanwhile, began warming to the Kurds and Druze, viewing them as potential allies amid rising tensions with Turkey. This shift came as Turkey resumed attacks on Syrian Kurds—despite their citizens holding high posts in Syria’s new government—while HTS targeted minorities like the Alawites (10-15% of Syria’s population), undermining the “New Syria” project.
The escalating chaos has rung alarm bells in Washington. Turkey’s refusal to integrate Kurds into national unity talks, coupled with HTS’s declaration of no elections for four years and no constitutional drafting, threatens Syria’s cohesion. The group’s Salafist ideology has fueled attacks on “others,” with some even vowing to strike PKK headquarters in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains.
Enter U.S. diplomacy: Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently visited Ankara, delivering a firm message—halt threats against Israel and ensure Kurdish representation in Syria. Behind-the-scenes efforts paid off when General Mazloum Abdi, leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), signed a peace deal with HTS’s Al Shaara, affirming “Syrian unity.” The U.S. breathed a sigh of relief, averting an all-out war Erdogan had warned would follow any Kurdish statehood.
For now, Washington hopes to restrain Turkey and its HTS proxies, softening their stance on the Kurds and averting Syria’s dismemberment. Yet, Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman dreams—and his reliance on radical groups—remain a volatile wildcard in an already fractured region.
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