Chișinău, Moldova – Moldova is preparing for a pivotal parliamentary election on September 28, a contest that could reshape its political landscape and determine whether the country of 2.4 million stays firmly on the path toward European Union membership—or drifts back into Moscow’s orbit.
At stake is the future of the ruling pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) of President Maia Sandu, which swept to power in 2021 with a commanding majority. Sandu, re-elected in November 2024, has made EU accession by 2030 the cornerstone of her agenda, framing integration as essential to Moldova’s economic revival and security in the face of Russian influence.
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But recent polls suggest PAS may lose its outright majority in the 101-seat parliament, forcing it to negotiate coalitions with smaller parties. Among potential partners are the populist Our Party and the pro-European but marginal Alternative Bloc, though the thresholds—5% for single parties, 7% for blocs—make entry into parliament uncertain.
On the other side, the Patriotic Bloc, an alliance of pro-Russian forces led by the Socialists of former president Igor Dodon, is mounting a stiff challenge. Dodon, who was unseated by Sandu in 2020, has been working to consolidate opposition groups and appeal to voters disillusioned with rising living costs.
Economic Stagnation, Reforms and Internal Polarization
Moldova heads into the September 2025 parliamentary elections in a climate of social and economic tension marked by persistent stagnation. According to the World Bank, after a contraction of 4.6% in 2022, GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2023 and a negligible 0.1% in 2024. Already weakened by structural imbalances, Moldova was battered by an inflationary shock of nearly 30%, triggered by the war in Ukraine.
The early-2025 energy crisis in Transnistria further exposed the fragility of Moldova’s supply system, deepening disparities between regions. Productivity remains low, infrastructure underdeveloped, and foreign investment scarce. At the same time, a massive emigration wave continues to erode the country’s human capital: over one million Moldovans now work abroad—more than a quarter of the total population, including the diaspora. Each year, 35,000 to 40,000 citizens leave, and demographic projections by the Center for Demographic Research warn the population could shrink to 1.9 million by 2040.
These economic woes feed into broader polarization. Supporters of PAS view reforms and EU integration as the only route out of stagnation, while critics argue the government has failed to deliver tangible improvements, particularly in fighting corruption and creating jobs.
Key Issues at Play
For PAS and its supporters, the election is about securing Moldova’s European future. The government argues that closer ties with Brussels will bring economic stability, reduce corruption, and strengthen the country’s independence from Russia. In August, leaders from France, Germany, and Poland traveled to Chișinău to demonstrate EU backing for Sandu’s course.
Yet many Moldovans remain more concerned with day-to-day survival. A 2024 referendum on EU membership barely crossed the 50% threshold, revealing deep divisions within society.
Political Realignment Underway
Beyond the contest between PAS and pro-Russian blocs, the election reflects a broader reorganization of Moldova’s political system. Identity, regional loyalties, and generational divides now shape politics as much as foreign policy.
The autonomous region of Gagauzia and the separatist enclave of Transnistria remain staunchly pro-Russian, while urban centers like Chișinău and Moldovan diaspora communities in Europe lean strongly toward PAS. Rural areas, however, are more receptive to populist and pro-Russian appeals.
The Impreuna (“Together”) Bloc, though struggling to pass the 7% threshold, seeks to capture disillusioned pro-European voters with its “Pact for Europe,” modeled on Romania’s path to EU accession.
Europe Watching Closely
For the European Union, the outcome carries weight well beyond Moldova’s borders. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has sought to anchor Eastern European states more firmly in the Western camp. Moldova, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, is seen as a frontline state in this struggle.
“The parliamentary elections will be decisive not only for Moldova’s European trajectory but also for Europe’s ability to withstand Russian influence in the region,” said a European diplomat in Chișinău.
With PAS banking on its reformist record and opponents seizing on economic discontent, Sunday’s vote promises to be one of the most consequential in Moldova’s modern history.
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