New York, USA — JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Monday that escalating trade wars could deliver lasting blows to the U.S. economy, stoking inflation, slowing growth, and jeopardizing America’s global alliances.
The stark caution, detailed in his annual shareholder letter, followed a brutal market rout last week that erased trillions from global stocks and came days after he and other banking titans pressed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the administration’s sweeping new tariffs.
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The tariffs—a 10% baseline on all imports, with sharper levies aimed at China and the EU—were unveiled last week by President Donald Trump, sparking immediate backlash. On Thursday, Dimon, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, and other Wall Street leaders met Lutnick in Washington, hosted by the Financial Services Forum, to probe the policy’s fallout, a source familiar with the meeting said. Lutnick defended Trump’s plan to “bring wealth back to America,” but faced pointed questions as markets spiraled—Hong Kong’s Hang Seng crashed 13.22% Monday, and U.S. futures sank 4%.
“The quicker this resolves, the better—negative effects compound over time and become harder to unwind,” Dimon, 69, wrote in his letter, published amid growing economic unease. “The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics). We are likely to see inflationary outcomes … Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.” JPMorgan economists now peg the odds of a U.S. and global recession this year at 60%, up from 40%.
Wall Street Titans Sound Alarm
Dimon wasn’t alone in his concern. Billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman, a Trump backer during the 2024 campaign, warned on X that the tariffs could trigger an “economic nuclear winter” if imposed this week. “We are heading for a self-induced disaster,” Ackman wrote, urging Trump to pause and renegotiate trade deals. He argued the levies would choke business investment, consumer spending, and “severely damage” America’s reputation for years—a rare public break from a former ally.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, major bank CEOs, including Dimon and Moynihan, held an emergency call Sunday to grapple with the tariffs’ repercussions, sources told Reuters. Convened by the Bank Policy Institute, the discussion underscored mounting anxiety among financial leaders as markets braced for more volatility.
Tariffs Threaten Stability
In his letter, Dimon—a towering voice in corporate America—listed a cascade of risks: persistent inflation, high fiscal deficits, volatile asset prices, and shaken economic confidence. He warned of retaliatory measures from trading partners, disruptions to capital flows, and pressure on corporate profits and the dollar. “I am concerned about the United States’ long-term economic alliances,” he added, a nod to fraying geopolitical ties
The tariffs also cloud the outlook for interest rates, Dimon noted. While a weaker dollar has recently pushed rates down, slower growth and fading risk appetite could drive them higher, evoking the stagflation of the 1970s. “We enter this time of uncertainty with high equity and debt prices, even after the recent decline … Markets still seem to be pricing assets with the assumption of a fairly soft landing. I am not so sure,” he wrote, challenging expectations that the U.S. will dodge a recession.
A Chorus of Doubt
Ackman’s dire forecast amplified Dimon’s unease. “Business leaders are losing confidence in Trump,” he wrote, signaling a shift among the president’s one-time supporters. The warnings come as JPMorgan prepares to report first-quarter earnings Friday, following a record profit last year. Dimon, often tapped by policymakers in crises and briefly floated for roles like Treasury secretary in 2024, has stayed at the bank’s helm, wielding outsized influence
As global markets reel—Monday saw Europe’s Stoxx 600 shed 5.7% and Brent crude hit a four-year low of $63 a barrel—pressure mounts on Trump to rethink his trade gambit. With Dimon, Ackman, and Wall Street’s elite ringing alarm bells, the tariff fight risks not just economic turbulence, but a deeper erosion of trust in America’s financial future.
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