Trump Pledges to Broker Ukraine Peace, But Moscow and Kyiv Dig In for Prolonged Conflict
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but as he prepares to take office, the path to peace remains elusive. Both Moscow and Kyiv are focused on strengthening their positions on the battlefield, with both sides seeking gains ahead of any potential talks to end the ongoing three-year war.
Over the past year, Russian forces have made incremental advances through Ukrainian defenses, aiming to establish full control of the four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine that Moscow annexed early in the war but has yet to fully capture. Moscow continues to launch missile and drone strikes aimed at crippling Ukraine’s energy network and vital infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukraine has focused on securing and expanding its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian missiles and drones have also targeted Russian oil facilities and key infrastructure critical to Moscow’s war efforts. Both sides have adopted tough stances, leaving little room for compromise in any future negotiations.
Trump, who previously promised to settle the conflict within 24 hours, revised his timeline earlier this month, expressing hope that a peace deal could be brokered within six months. His nominee for envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has set an even more ambitious target, suggesting that an agreement could be reached in just 100 days.
Moscow’s Demands and Kyiv’s Resolve
From Moscow’s perspective, President Vladimir Putin has signaled a willingness to negotiate, but he insists that any peace deal must reflect the “realities on the ground” — a phrase that underscores Russia’s demand to retain the land it has annexed. Putin has emphasized that Ukraine must abandon its NATO aspirations and fully withdraw its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — territories Russia annexed in September 2022. These conditions have been flatly rejected by both Ukraine and the West.
Moscow has also called for the lifting of Western sanctions, which have severely restricted Russia’s access to global markets and contributed to economic challenges. While military spending has boosted Russia’s economic output, which grew by nearly 4% last year, the weakening ruble and labor shortages have fueled high inflation and increased instability in the Russian economy.
Last week, President Joe Biden further escalated the pressure on Moscow by expanding sanctions targeting Russia’s vital energy sector, including its shadow shipping fleet, which is used to circumvent earlier restrictions.
As both sides brace for continued conflict, the prospects for peace under Trump’s leadership remain uncertain, with both Moscow and Kyiv unlikely to yield on key demands without significant shifts in the battlefield dynamics.
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