New Delhi, India — India is witnessing a notable shift in its neighborhood diplomacy as it loses influence over Bangladesh, once its closest ally, while simultaneously rekindling and strengthening ties with Sri Lanka. The changing political landscape in South Asia reflects New Delhi’s evolving strategic posture amid emerging challenges and new opportunities.
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After the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s long-standing government in August 2024, India’s relationship with Bangladesh entered a turbulent phase. The new interim government in Dhaka, led by Chief Adviser and Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, has adopted a noticeably colder stance toward New Delhi. Tensions between the two neighbors have been exacerbated by the contentious issue of Hasina’s extradition.
Sheikh Hasina, now in exile in India following a massive student-led movement that ousted her from power, remains a highly polarizing figure in Bangladeshi politics. Dhaka has accused her of committing crimes against humanity, genocide, corruption, and mass murder—allegations that the new administration insists she must answer in court. During a sideline meeting at the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok earlier this month, Yunus formally requested Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to extradite Hasina. However, the talks ended without resolution.
According to Bangladesh’s Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain, the extradition request was made but remained unsettled. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Modi raised concerns about the safety and status of the Hindu community in Bangladesh, signaling mutual distrust. The failed talks were further shadowed by Yunus’s recent diplomatic overtures to Beijing, including a high-profile visit to China prior to the BIMSTEC meeting, a move that clearly irked New Delhi.
In contrast, India appears to be enjoying a diplomatic resurgence in Colombo. After years of strained ties during the final phase of the Rajapaksa dynasty—largely due to Sri Lanka’s increasing closeness with China—relations have begun to warm under the leadership of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a 56-year-old leftist leader elected in September 2024.
Despite early speculation that his communist ideology would draw him closer to Beijing, Dissanayake has charted a pragmatic foreign policy path that includes strengthening relations with India. His administration has responded positively to New Delhi’s outreach, and the results are already visible.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Colombo from April 4–6, immediately after the BIMSTEC Summit, marked a significant moment in India-Sri Lanka ties. The visit, widely praised for its symbolism and substance, resulted in several bilateral agreements and reaffirmed Sri Lanka’s central role in India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy. President Dissanayake’s office emphasized that Modi’s visit underscored the strategic importance of Colombo in regional affairs.
Among the major outcomes of the visit was the signing of a five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Defence Cooperation. The agreement includes high-level military exchanges, joint training exercises, capacity-building initiatives, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations, naval port visits, and exploratory cooperation in the defense industry. Modi described the pact as “rooted in shared security interests and mutual trust,” reinforcing India’s long-standing concerns about Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean, particularly after the 99-year lease of Hambantota Port to China under the Rajapaksas.
India had previously supported Sri Lanka during its economic meltdown in 2022 with emergency credit lines and humanitarian aid, helping to stabilize the crisis-ridden island nation. That goodwill now appears to be paying off.
While India maintains historical and emotional ties with Bangladesh—having played a key role in its liberation in 1971—its relationship with Dhaka is now at a crossroads. The reversal of political fortunes in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka marks a striking reshaping of South Asia’s strategic map.
As India recalibrates its neighborhood strategy, the shift in dynamics—losing grip on Dhaka while regaining Colombo—is emblematic of the complex and often unpredictable nature of regional diplomacy. Whether this realignment proves sustainable or temporary will depend on how leaders in New Delhi, Dhaka, and Colombo navigate the turbulent waters ahead.
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