JERUSALEM, Israel — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to win 24 to 25 seats in the general election, down from 32 seats in 2022. However, exit polls published by the country’s major television channels indicate that Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to secure around 50 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority.
The opposition bloc is projected to win between 52 and 53 seats, giving it a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s camp, according to the exit polls.
Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! (Straight Ahead!) is projected to secure 21 to 23 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s Together is expected to win 12 to 14 seats. Yair Golan’s Democrats are projected to receive nine to 10 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu (Israel Our Home) is expected to win seven to nine seats.
Netanyahu’s bloc includes Likud, projected to win 24 to 25 seats; the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, led by Aryeh Deri, with six to eight seats; Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party, with six to seven seats; Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, with around six seats; and United Torah Judaism, led by Yaakov Asher, with six to seven seats.
Meanwhile, Arab parties are projected to win a combined 17 seats, following a late-day increase in voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.
The Joint List, comprising the left-wing parties Hadash, Ta’al and Balad, is projected to secure 10 to 11 seats, while the Islamist Ra’am party is expected to win seven seats.
Arab Parties Hold Potentially Decisive Role
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, and a governing majority requires at least 61. With neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition reaching that threshold in the exit polls, Arab parties could play a decisive role in determining the next government, although both sides have so far rejected relying on their support.
On Tuesday, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, expressed his willingness to work with opposition partners to form a new government.
“The people have spoken. They have ousted the Netanyahu government. We have a historic opportunity to establish a government of real change in Israel, and we won’t let it slip away,” Golan said, according to the reported remarks.
“We are prepared to work with all our partners, bridge our differences, and assume our responsibility,” he added.
Voter Turnout Reaches Highest Level Since 1988
According to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, voter turnout reached 74.3% by 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, two hours before polling stations were scheduled to close. The figure was eight percentage points higher than turnout at the same time during the previous election and represented the highest level recorded since 1988.
More than 5.4 million Israelis had cast their ballots by that point. Polling stations were scheduled to close at 10 p.m. local time.
The turnout figure had already surpassed the 70.6% overall participation recorded in the 2022 election, highlighting strong voter engagement in a contest that could reshape Israel’s political landscape.
The final outcome and subsequent coalition negotiations will determine whether Netanyahu can retain power or the opposition can assemble a government with sufficient parliamentary support.
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