BRUSSELS — European Union (EU) chief Ursula von der Leyen on Monday expressed optimism about the future of transatlantic ties as she congratulated Donald Trump on his inauguration for a second term as U.S. President.
“The EU looks forward to working closely with you to tackle global challenges,” von der Leyen wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “Together, our societies can achieve greater prosperity and strengthen their common security.”
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Trump, known for his critical stance toward the European Union during his first term, has assumed office again amid a period of uncertainty in EU-U.S. relations. Experts suggest that Brussels will need to maintain open communication channels with Washington, emphasizing areas of mutual interest such as defense, trade, and support for Ukraine.
Despite potential strains in areas such as defense and trade, EU leadership has remained hopeful for fostering positive relations. Following Trump’s inauguration, EU officials shared congratulatory messages, reflecting hopes for a continued partnership between the two sides.
Challenges for EU Relations with Trump
Giuseppe Spatafora, a transatlantic relations expert at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), outlined defense and trade as key areas where EU-U.S. relations will be tested during Trump’s second term.
Spatafora noted that the current security environment represents one of the most challenging situations the EU has faced. “The transatlantic relationship as we know it will probably shift from a partnership of like-minded actors sharing similar values to a more interest-based relationship,” he explained.
However, he stressed that shared interests, particularly in defense, could prevent a complete divergence. “The U.S. is likely to prioritize territorial defense and countering China in the Asia-Pacific region, but this doesn’t mean abandoning Europe. The U.S. may have to carefully choose its battles, while Europeans will need to contribute more to their own defense,” Spatafora said.
Trade Tensions and Potential Clashes
While the EU holds a stronger position in trade than in defense, Spatafora warned that clashes over trade policies could arise during Trump’s second term, especially given the possibility of tariffs. “Trump may start with tariffs on countries like Mexico, Canada, or China, but Europe must be prepared for all scenarios, including the possibility of a 10% tariff on all goods,” he said.
Support for Ukraine and Peace Negotiations
Ondrej Ditrych, a senior analyst at EUISS, pointed out the EU’s ongoing concern about Trump’s position on Ukraine. “EU support is crucial for Ukraine’s defense,” he noted, referring to military material and training programs. However, Ditrych expressed concern over potential differences between EU and Trump’s approach to peace negotiations in Ukraine. “If the U.S. pushes for a hasty deal, it could encourage Russia to break the agreement,” he cautioned.
Leveraging NATO in EU-U.S. Relations
Juraj Majcin, an analyst at the European Policy Centre, stressed that maintaining a strong EU-U.S. relationship would be difficult under Trump’s administration, given his historically strained views on the EU. He suggested that the EU might find more success through NATO and influential figures such as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who could serve as an intermediary in discussions between the EU and the U.S.
Majcin also warned that Trump’s relationships with figures like Elon Musk might be used to exploit divisions within Europe, particularly by supporting far-right movements to extract concessions from the EU.
As the EU navigates these complex issues, leaders will continue to focus on maintaining unity and collaboration with the U.S. despite potential tensions ahead.
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