Liberty Case

Washington/Ankara – Turkey’s long-standing involvement in the Syrian conflict, rooted in its creation of the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA)—widely seen as a rebranded Syrian Muslim Brotherhood—has been driven by an ambitious Neo-Ottoman ideology under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This vision, bolstered by propaganda maps of a “New Turkey” that annexes Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq, has faced significant hurdles, exposing cracks in Turkey’s strategy and its alignment with NATO.

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Turkey’s initial plan leaned heavily on NATO’s backing, which had historically supported Ankara’s fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). However, the maturation of Kurdish forces—both politically and militarily—disrupted this calculus. The Kurds, once a missing piece in Turkey and NATO’s strategy, emerged as a formidable power, challenging Ankara’s designs.

Erdogan’s confidence soared with the state-sponsored rise of Salafist Islamist groups, a role Turkey assumed after the U.S. faltered in similar efforts with Afghanistan’s mujahideen. The U.S.-backed “Train+Equip” program, with camps based in Turkey and recruits handpicked by Ankara, gave birth to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group critics call a Turco-Syrian Al Qaeda. Many of its top leaders reportedly hold Turkish citizenship, underscoring the deep ties. Erdogan boasted that within six months he would pray in Damascus’s Ummayad Mosque—a promise yet unfulfilled.

HTS, under leader Al Jolani, gained gradual promotion from Turkey and NATO. A leaked 2012 email from Jake Sullivan to Hillary Clinton famously claimed, “Al Qaeda is on our side,” hinting at a pragmatic alignment. Yet, the program’s graduates often defected to Al Qaeda and ISIS, failing to subdue the Kurds and complicating Turkey’s war against them.

The U.S., initially hesitant, shifted to support the Kurds to counterbalance the “Syrian Islamization project” Turkey envisioned—an Islamic Republic to bolster Erdogan’s threats of invading Israel in support of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. At a recent rally, as crowds chanted for Erdogan to “send us to Jerusalem,” he urged patience, signaling a long-term gambit.

Israel, meanwhile, began warming to the Kurds and Druze, viewing them as potential allies amid rising tensions with Turkey. This shift came as Turkey resumed attacks on Syrian Kurds—despite their citizens holding high posts in Syria’s new government—while HTS targeted minorities like the Alawites (10-15% of Syria’s population), undermining the “New Syria” project.

The escalating chaos has rung alarm bells in Washington. Turkey’s refusal to integrate Kurds into national unity talks, coupled with HTS’s declaration of no elections for four years and no constitutional drafting, threatens Syria’s cohesion. The group’s Salafist ideology has fueled attacks on “others,” with some even vowing to strike PKK headquarters in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains.

Enter U.S. diplomacy: Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently visited Riyadh, Saudi Arabia delivering a firm message—halt threats against Israel and ensure Kurdish representation in Syria. Behind-the-scenes efforts paid off when General Mazloum Abdi, leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), signed a peace deal with HTS’s Al Shaara, affirming “Syrian unity.” The U.S. breathed a sigh of relief, averting an all-out war Erdogan had warned would follow any Kurdish statehood.

For now, Washington hopes to restrain Turkey and its HTS proxies, softening their stance on the Kurds and averting Syria’s dismemberment. Yet, Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman dreams—and his reliance on radical groups—remain a volatile wildcard in an already fractured region.

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Baku/Tbilisi – Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on the final text of a peace treaty to formally end their decades-long conflict over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Both sides are now discussing the date and venue for the signing, marking a crucial step toward lasting stability in the region.

“The work on the text has been completed,” Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said, adding that Armenia had accepted Azerbaijan’s proposals on two outstanding issues.

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Armenia’s foreign ministry also confirmed that representatives of both countries had reached a consensus on the treaty. “Armenia is willing to start consultations with Azerbaijan regarding the date and place of the signing,” the ministry said.

Previously, the two nations had agreed on 15 of the 17 articles of the treaty, with unresolved matters concerning legal complaints before international courts and the presence of foreign forces along their shared border.

The peace negotiations trace back to an April 2022 meeting in Brussels, where Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev agreed to launch talks and establish a joint border commission.

Pashinyan hailed the completion of the treaty’s text as an “important event” and reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to allowing Azerbaijan transit access to Nakhchivan, one of Baku’s key demands, provided that Armenian sovereignty over the transit routes is respected.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has conditioned the treaty’s signing on amendments to Armenia’s constitution, which Baku claims threatens its territorial integrity.

Pashinyan, however, has rejected this assertion, stating that Armenia’s constitution contains no territorial claims over Azerbaijan, whereas Azerbaijan’s constitution does include such claims over Armenian territory.

Pashinyan also argued that the peace treaty, once signed, would override national legislation, helping to resolve these lingering disputes.

The nearly 1,000-km border between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains undefined due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which erupted following the Soviet Union’s collapse.

The two countries have fought two wars over the enclave, one won by Armenia in 1994 and the second by Azerbaijan in 2020. Russia’s TASS state news agency cited Pashinyan as telling journalists on Thursday that the agreement would prevent personnel from third countries deploying along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

That provision would likely cover a European Union civilian monitoring mission that Baku has criticised, as well as Russian border guards who police parts of Armenia’s frontiers.
The outbreak of hostilities in the late 1980s prompted mass expulsions of hundreds of thousands of mostly Muslim Azeris from Armenia and Armenians, who are majority Christian, from Azerbaijan.

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